Weekly Trading Update – 2025 Capital Growth at 25.52% With Three Weeks to Go
With the latest numbers in, total capital growth for 2025 now sits at 25.52%, and we still have three weeks left in the calendar year. I’m very happy with the performance — not just the headline figure but the consistency behind it. These gains compound meaningfully over time, and the real power of the strategy is revealed not in any single month, but in keeping this rhythm steady month after month.
For context:
- AIB’s 30-day notice deposit account currently pays 1.5% per annum.
- The S&P 500 has gained 13.8% since January 1st.
Against that backdrop, a steady +25% year — delivered with managed risk and a fairly controlled drawdown — demonstrates exactly what disciplined, rules-based trading can offer.
A Clear Trading Structure Now in Full Flow
I’m also pleased with the rollout of the dual-engine Blackwave strategy, which is now operating exactly as designed.
Here’s the simplified overview:
- Formalised hedging begins automatically at 8% drawdown.
- Hedges open and close gracefully, adding incremental gains that strengthen both equity and balance.
- When drawdown naturally eases below 6%, the hedging engine steps back quietly, leaving no footprint behind (except more money).
It’s a light-touch system — simple in concept, elegant in execution, and extremely effective over long horizons. It’s a powerful shield against flash crashes by building equity before and during the crash. Many powerful ideas are deceptively simple, and this is one of them.
What matters most is the behaviour of the system: it does its work quietly, it protects capital when needed, and it enhances compounding without disrupting the main strategy. That “main strategy” has built a lot of wealth even before this new shield was invented.
Compounding Is the True Driver
A year like this reinforces a very old lesson:
You don’t need fireworks — you need consistency.
If this level of output continues, the compounding curve becomes very meaningful:
- 25% per year for five years is not 125%.
- It’s closer to ~3× capital, depending on deposits and timing.
This is why my focus stays on stability, sustainability, and quietly repeating the same behaviours every week.
Looking Ahead
With three weeks left in 2025, the priority is unchanged:
- Keep trading conditions stable
- Maintain low-impact, disciplined risk management
- Let the engines work
- Avoid unnecessary changes or excitement
If we simply continue as we are, compounding will take care of the rest.
In other news check out the latest Podcast below. Also available on Apple by searching for “The Blackwave Mindset Series” Enjoy the drama!